There is no doubt Elliott Wave is one of those techniques that traders either love or hate. For some it’s almost a status symbol to be able to count waves. Others find it just too hard. I have looked over some online Elliott Wave forums on an occasional basis just to have a look at how people discuss their wave counts. It’s not an infrequent comment I see when some state “I like Elliott Wave but it’s like something isn’t quite right.” Others tend to not adhere too strictly to the rules and just observe for 5-wave moves.
Some Elliotticians swear by Robert Prechter and some find his wave counts change too much and find themselves frustrated. The appearance of extended waves confound and the retrospective failed fifth causes confusion.
In my own experience in over 20 years practicing Elliott Wave I also became aware that things were not quite right. The same anomalies in the wave structure repeated themselves over and over again. The normal Fibonacci projections which are widely quoted didn’t work all that often. Impulsive waves all too often stalled early and missed out a wave. Looking at leading Elliotticians’ analyses their counts rarely any adhered to any relationships…
If you are one of these Elliotticians that have had these doubts when counting waves I have news for you… You’re absolutely right. R.N. Elliott made a misjudgment in the impulsive wave structure. I am 100% certain of that.
Before going on I would like to say that I do not wish to imply that R.N. Elliott failed. In my opinion he was brilliant enough to make such observations in the first place. I do not for one moment believe I could have identified and quantified the Wave Principle if I had no prior foundation on which to work.
The ability for me to identify this different structure to impulsive waves could really have only been managed with the benefit of modern calculators and charting software. With a few touches of the keyboard I am able to generate a full range of retracement levels and projections in my spreadsheet. While Elliott did have access to hourly charts, his ability to scrutinize wave relationships was limited due to the fact that he would have had to calculate a range of ratios long hand. Spreadsheets allow these to be available almost instantaneously. All that is needed is to tap in a few highs and lows.
Therefore I prefer to label my findings as a modification only. R.N. Elliott’s work still remains as a remarkable feat of observation and diligence in my own mind.