Joseph Trevisani
05-13-2011, 08:23 AM
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 44,000 to 434,000 for the work week ending May 6th. This is the fifth consecutive week that claims have been above 400,000 and the longest sustained period above that level since January. Economists in the Bloomberg Survey had predicted 430,000 people would file new claims. The previous week’s claims were revised 4,000 higher to 478,000.
The 400,000 level of initial claims is usually cited by economists as the general dividing line between an economy that is gaining or losing jobs. Before claims dropped below 400,000 in February and March the economy had endured 30 straight months of more than 400,000 first time claims. Only the double recession of 1980-81 had a longer period of elevated first time claims. The record for this statistic goes back to January 1967.
This long surge above 400,000 is an indication that the steady job creation that began last October may have begun to falter. The recent deteriorating trend in jobless claims does not jibe with the modest improvement in payrolls over the past seven months. The economy has added jobs each month since last September, according to the non-farm payrolls statistic of the ‘establishment survey’, with the highest number, 244,000, coming most recently in April. The concurrent household survey, which charts new and small firms contained in the same NFP report, showed a loss of 190,000 jobs in April, the first negative in five months.
The four-week moving average rose to 436,750 from 432,250. This is the highest weekly average since last November when claims were winding down from more than 30 months of high unemployment benefits.
Continuing claims in the week of April 29th rose 5,000 to 3.756 million; a fall of 33,000 to 3.700 million had been predicted. The prior week was revised 18,000 higher to 3.751 million.
Emergency claims in the week of April 22th dropped 31,900 to 3.4156 million from 3.4475 million. In the same week the number of recipients of extended benefits rose to 689,000 from 674,200. Currently 4.1046 million people are collecting unemployment benefits beyond the initial eligibility period, 17,100 less than the prior week. They are 7.8556 million people receiving either original or supplemental unemployment insurance..
The 400,000 level of initial claims is usually cited by economists as the general dividing line between an economy that is gaining or losing jobs. Before claims dropped below 400,000 in February and March the economy had endured 30 straight months of more than 400,000 first time claims. Only the double recession of 1980-81 had a longer period of elevated first time claims. The record for this statistic goes back to January 1967.
This long surge above 400,000 is an indication that the steady job creation that began last October may have begun to falter. The recent deteriorating trend in jobless claims does not jibe with the modest improvement in payrolls over the past seven months. The economy has added jobs each month since last September, according to the non-farm payrolls statistic of the ‘establishment survey’, with the highest number, 244,000, coming most recently in April. The concurrent household survey, which charts new and small firms contained in the same NFP report, showed a loss of 190,000 jobs in April, the first negative in five months.
The four-week moving average rose to 436,750 from 432,250. This is the highest weekly average since last November when claims were winding down from more than 30 months of high unemployment benefits.
Continuing claims in the week of April 29th rose 5,000 to 3.756 million; a fall of 33,000 to 3.700 million had been predicted. The prior week was revised 18,000 higher to 3.751 million.
Emergency claims in the week of April 22th dropped 31,900 to 3.4156 million from 3.4475 million. In the same week the number of recipients of extended benefits rose to 689,000 from 674,200. Currently 4.1046 million people are collecting unemployment benefits beyond the initial eligibility period, 17,100 less than the prior week. They are 7.8556 million people receiving either original or supplemental unemployment insurance..