TradingTheCharts
02-07-2007, 08:20 PM
S&P 500 CASH
Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1455; low - 1448
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1464; low - 1433
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1459; Low - 1421
Yearly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1531; Low - 1319
Current SPX Index Positions:
From previous outlook: “The net combo of the cyclic configuration from above should have us looking for some additional consolidation lower in the next few days with the 10 day cycle, but not ideally until the price projection of 1452.16 or higher is satisfied. Thus far, the index has easily held above weekly projected support (1433), though a test of this same level is still not out of the cards in the days ahead, as the 9 day moving average is normally a downside magnet to price once the 10 day component peaks out; this moving average is currently at or near the 1435 level (chart above). All said then, for the very short-term we should still look for the 10 day target range to be met, then to be followed by a mild correction into the next 10 day bottom.”
Current analysis: Wednesday’s session witnessed the SPX confirming a turn higher with the 21-hour minor cycle, here running all the way up to an afternoon high of 1452.99. From there, a sharp but quick downside reversal was seen into late-day trading, here pulling back to what is now seen as first support (1446) with the tag of 1446.44 at the session bottom. From there, a good bounce took the index higher into the closing bell, ending the day up by 1.98 points overall. Volume here came in at 1.47 billion shares, which is a very slight expansion from yesterday’s levels. And, coming on a day where a higher high was registered, this is viewed as short-term bullish indication, indicating that today’s high will be tested/exceeded again in the days ahead.
From the notes from recent days, there was an outstanding upside projection from the 10 day cycle to 1452.16 or higher - which was originally confirmed in the intraday outlooks in last Thursday’s trading; today’s push thus satisfies this price projection with this com-ponent. As well, from a few days back the statistical notes with time on the 20 day cycle indicated that no short-term peak would be favored prior to 2/7/06 - which today’s action also now satisfies. All said then, both the short-term price/time statistics on the 10 and 20 day component have easily been met on this swing up.
From the cyclic table, the 10 day cycle is now seen as 8 trading days along and has flipped to a bearish labeling at today’s close, with the new downside ‘reversal point’ being any hourly close below 1446.00 SPX CASH; in other words, an hourly close below this level would be our top indication that the downward phase of this component is back in force. If and when seen, the downside magnet to price should be the 9 day moving average or lower, currently just below the 1438 level (above, SPX 60-minute chart).
Stepping back again, the 20 day, 45 day, and now 120 day cycles are all labeled as bullish, and thus any correction that should develop with the 10 day cycle in the next day or three should ideally be followed by higher highs again on the next swing up with the same. This would be especially true should that 10-day cycle correction materialize before taking out today’s intraday high of 1452.99. Why? Because both cumulative breadth and volume did confirm today’s high, and - when both have been seen in the past - the probabilities are about 95% that higher highs will be seen again on the following swing up. The bottom line then says to look for a correction back to the 9 day moving average or lower in the next day or three, then higher highs to follow on the next swing up with each of the 10, 20, 45 and 120 day cycles, ideally into mid-to-late month.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1825; Low - 1804
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance level: High - 1823; Low - 1781
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1789; Low - 1713
From previous outlook: “for the week this index has played out as forecast in the weekend outlook, with the call being a decline into an early-week low for a test of weekly projected support (1780-1782). So far, that level has held the action on a closing basis, so, as per those same notes, the probabilities will now favor a test of short-term resistance in the next day or two (1806-1820). However, with volume also confirming today’s intraday low - and with the current position of the 10 day component here - I would look for a failure at or into short-term resistance, then to be followed by yet another test of the low-end of the range (1760-1775) on the following swing down with the same.”
Current analysis: The NDX was initially the strongest of the indexes tracked, early in today’s session running all the way up to a high of 1816.77 at the intraday peak. Early-day rallies into resistance tend to be bearish affairs - as today’s was, at least marginally, with the index then selling down to a late-day low of 1802.10; this same level now marks new short-term support. Volume here came in at 2.17 billion shares, which is an expansion of 3% from yesterday’s levels. And, coming on a day where a higher high was registered, this is viewed as more short-term bullish than bearish and does indicate that we will see today’s intraday high tested or exceeded at some point.
Aside from the bullish notes on today’s volume-confirmed peak, as per the notes from last night the 1775 swing low from Tuesday’s session was also confirmed, which again should indicate that we will see this level tested at some point as well. I noted both in Tuesday’s intraday outlook and in last night’s comments that the volume-confirmed highs and lows from recent sessions would likely lead to choppy trading conditions in the days ahead, something which has proven correct so far.
So far the week has played out almost perfectly for this index. The call from the weekend outlook was for a decline into an early-day low for a test of weekly projected support (1880-1882), with the actual low coming in at 1776.51. The same 1880 level was favored to hold that correction on a closing basis (it did), and then was also favored to make a run back to resistance (1806-1820) by mid-to-late week; thus, all of the above have now been satisfied. Having said that, the 10 day cycle is now 8 trading days along on this index as well, of which infers that a short-term correction south with the same should be favored in the next day or three. If that correction does play out then, as with the SPX, we should expect a higher high again on the following swing up. Stay tuned.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
web: http://cyclewave.homestead.com/
Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1455; low - 1448
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1464; low - 1433
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1459; Low - 1421
Yearly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1531; Low - 1319
Current SPX Index Positions:
From previous outlook: “The net combo of the cyclic configuration from above should have us looking for some additional consolidation lower in the next few days with the 10 day cycle, but not ideally until the price projection of 1452.16 or higher is satisfied. Thus far, the index has easily held above weekly projected support (1433), though a test of this same level is still not out of the cards in the days ahead, as the 9 day moving average is normally a downside magnet to price once the 10 day component peaks out; this moving average is currently at or near the 1435 level (chart above). All said then, for the very short-term we should still look for the 10 day target range to be met, then to be followed by a mild correction into the next 10 day bottom.”
Current analysis: Wednesday’s session witnessed the SPX confirming a turn higher with the 21-hour minor cycle, here running all the way up to an afternoon high of 1452.99. From there, a sharp but quick downside reversal was seen into late-day trading, here pulling back to what is now seen as first support (1446) with the tag of 1446.44 at the session bottom. From there, a good bounce took the index higher into the closing bell, ending the day up by 1.98 points overall. Volume here came in at 1.47 billion shares, which is a very slight expansion from yesterday’s levels. And, coming on a day where a higher high was registered, this is viewed as short-term bullish indication, indicating that today’s high will be tested/exceeded again in the days ahead.
From the notes from recent days, there was an outstanding upside projection from the 10 day cycle to 1452.16 or higher - which was originally confirmed in the intraday outlooks in last Thursday’s trading; today’s push thus satisfies this price projection with this com-ponent. As well, from a few days back the statistical notes with time on the 20 day cycle indicated that no short-term peak would be favored prior to 2/7/06 - which today’s action also now satisfies. All said then, both the short-term price/time statistics on the 10 and 20 day component have easily been met on this swing up.
From the cyclic table, the 10 day cycle is now seen as 8 trading days along and has flipped to a bearish labeling at today’s close, with the new downside ‘reversal point’ being any hourly close below 1446.00 SPX CASH; in other words, an hourly close below this level would be our top indication that the downward phase of this component is back in force. If and when seen, the downside magnet to price should be the 9 day moving average or lower, currently just below the 1438 level (above, SPX 60-minute chart).
Stepping back again, the 20 day, 45 day, and now 120 day cycles are all labeled as bullish, and thus any correction that should develop with the 10 day cycle in the next day or three should ideally be followed by higher highs again on the next swing up with the same. This would be especially true should that 10-day cycle correction materialize before taking out today’s intraday high of 1452.99. Why? Because both cumulative breadth and volume did confirm today’s high, and - when both have been seen in the past - the probabilities are about 95% that higher highs will be seen again on the following swing up. The bottom line then says to look for a correction back to the 9 day moving average or lower in the next day or three, then higher highs to follow on the next swing up with each of the 10, 20, 45 and 120 day cycles, ideally into mid-to-late month.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1825; Low - 1804
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance level: High - 1823; Low - 1781
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1789; Low - 1713
From previous outlook: “for the week this index has played out as forecast in the weekend outlook, with the call being a decline into an early-week low for a test of weekly projected support (1780-1782). So far, that level has held the action on a closing basis, so, as per those same notes, the probabilities will now favor a test of short-term resistance in the next day or two (1806-1820). However, with volume also confirming today’s intraday low - and with the current position of the 10 day component here - I would look for a failure at or into short-term resistance, then to be followed by yet another test of the low-end of the range (1760-1775) on the following swing down with the same.”
Current analysis: The NDX was initially the strongest of the indexes tracked, early in today’s session running all the way up to a high of 1816.77 at the intraday peak. Early-day rallies into resistance tend to be bearish affairs - as today’s was, at least marginally, with the index then selling down to a late-day low of 1802.10; this same level now marks new short-term support. Volume here came in at 2.17 billion shares, which is an expansion of 3% from yesterday’s levels. And, coming on a day where a higher high was registered, this is viewed as more short-term bullish than bearish and does indicate that we will see today’s intraday high tested or exceeded at some point.
Aside from the bullish notes on today’s volume-confirmed peak, as per the notes from last night the 1775 swing low from Tuesday’s session was also confirmed, which again should indicate that we will see this level tested at some point as well. I noted both in Tuesday’s intraday outlook and in last night’s comments that the volume-confirmed highs and lows from recent sessions would likely lead to choppy trading conditions in the days ahead, something which has proven correct so far.
So far the week has played out almost perfectly for this index. The call from the weekend outlook was for a decline into an early-day low for a test of weekly projected support (1880-1882), with the actual low coming in at 1776.51. The same 1880 level was favored to hold that correction on a closing basis (it did), and then was also favored to make a run back to resistance (1806-1820) by mid-to-late week; thus, all of the above have now been satisfied. Having said that, the 10 day cycle is now 8 trading days along on this index as well, of which infers that a short-term correction south with the same should be favored in the next day or three. If that correction does play out then, as with the SPX, we should expect a higher high again on the following swing up. Stay tuned.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
web: http://cyclewave.homestead.com/