Carley Garner
09-24-2008, 05:11 PM
September 24th, 2008
Pre-order my book, "Commodity Options" today! Visit www.DeCarleyTrading.com for details.
Moderate Treasury buying ahead of bailout decision.
Paulson and Bernanke were at it again; their warnings to Congress that the bail out was a necessary evil and must be enacted in a timely manner didn't seem to be taken seriously by all. As lawmakers take their time to debate the good and bad of the bill, the markets are growing anxious.
The Treasury market enjoyed a light flight to quality bid, but trade is cautious as event risk is high. Those with exposure to the markets must be comfortable with the potential of a spike in volatility.
The highly anticipated two year note auction wasn't the success that some were hoping for, Treasuries softened in post auction trade to give back a majority of the early morning gains.
Existing home sales showed a slightly larger fall than most had expected, but the news was swept under the rug as traders have bigger issues on their plates. Aside from the bailout hearing, the notable news of the day was a considerable investment in Goldman Sach's from Warren Buffet. The move helped point investors toward confidence as opposed to pessimism but a complete shift in sentiment will likely take much more.
Today's failure to hold gains suggests that my theory of more weakness ahead may become a reality. I am still looking for the long bond to see 116'01, based on how the market reacts to this level there may be a short term bullish opportunity. However, failure to hold support near 116 may lead to a decline as low as 112. The 10 year note should find support near 114'11, however there is potential for another wave of selling to bring the contract to 112. Stay tuned for ideas on how to trade this.
Treasury Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
Flat
Treasury Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
Pre-order my book, "Commodity Options" today! Visit www.DeCarleyTrading.com for details.
Moderate Treasury buying ahead of bailout decision.
Paulson and Bernanke were at it again; their warnings to Congress that the bail out was a necessary evil and must be enacted in a timely manner didn't seem to be taken seriously by all. As lawmakers take their time to debate the good and bad of the bill, the markets are growing anxious.
The Treasury market enjoyed a light flight to quality bid, but trade is cautious as event risk is high. Those with exposure to the markets must be comfortable with the potential of a spike in volatility.
The highly anticipated two year note auction wasn't the success that some were hoping for, Treasuries softened in post auction trade to give back a majority of the early morning gains.
Existing home sales showed a slightly larger fall than most had expected, but the news was swept under the rug as traders have bigger issues on their plates. Aside from the bailout hearing, the notable news of the day was a considerable investment in Goldman Sach's from Warren Buffet. The move helped point investors toward confidence as opposed to pessimism but a complete shift in sentiment will likely take much more.
Today's failure to hold gains suggests that my theory of more weakness ahead may become a reality. I am still looking for the long bond to see 116'01, based on how the market reacts to this level there may be a short term bullish opportunity. However, failure to hold support near 116 may lead to a decline as low as 112. The 10 year note should find support near 114'11, however there is potential for another wave of selling to bring the contract to 112. Stay tuned for ideas on how to trade this.
Treasury Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
Flat
Treasury Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.