Market Update
Forex
How you know it is getting ugly out there: Paul Krugman
“President Barack Obama, under pressure to bolster the U.S. economy, said on Monday he and his economic advisers are discussing additional steps to generate job growth such as more tax cuts for businesses.” (Reuters) Officially, Paul Krugman is not one of Obama’s aforementioned economic advise
What the Big Mac Can Tell You about Currencies
Currencies have experienced a massive wave of volatility in the past three years. Driving some of that volatility are the early stages of a sovereign debt and currency crisis. As I laid out in my June 26 Money and Markets column, history suggests many of the sovereign debt problems in the world will
Is the ‘recovery’ back on track?
There has been a lot of double-dip talk in the market, and a lot of it from us. But, we remain open to being very wrong. Quite possibly, if the recovery is back on track, the US dollar will get smoked on yield and growth differentials; a couple of key factors that not too long ago appeared to favor
FX Trading – No buyer of last resort is a deflationary train wreck
I was reading George Soros’ criticisms of Germany this morning. If the euro experiment fails, it will be all Germany’s fault, according to Mr. Soros (yeah, okay, sure). It seems Mr. Soros wants Germany to start raising wages and do all it can to boost domestic spending. The old ideas of thrift a
FX Trading – Stressed Out
We could refer to our once-upon-a-time Currency Currents that criticized the stress tests administered to US banks, but really we wouldn’t be saying much more than: ‘they were a phony, propaganda-laden strategy that aimed to deceive investors of the obvious risks that remained with US banks.’
The Dollar’s Bull Market Is Just Getting Started!
The dollar index has surged 20 percent since last November. And this week, it was sniffing around its 2009 high! That’s pretty impressive, especially given that the 2009 high was driven by an across the board, global flight to the dollar … underpinned by one of the worst combinations of
Key Long-term Themes Still in Play but there are Questions
We put together the chart below for a presentation we made back in January this year; it is a visual representation of the four primary underlying themes we think will drive the long-term dollar bull market. To phrase it another way, global healing and a strong US dollar are mutually reinforcing and
The Euro Is Washed Up – But the Dollar Is No Better
Greece has made it obvious: The euro is doomed. This fact had been obvious to all the euro critics from the very beginning. All the arguments against the possibility of a common currency for very disparate countries had been raised, but brushed away by overzealous politicians. They’ll learn th
FX Trading – RBA Gets It Started
What did the RBA do? Nothing. And their inaction confirmed what traders have been anticipating: a very unstable foundation for the global economy. Thus, despite the outlook for Australia’s economy in the long-run, it’s certainly no time to be raising interest rates any higher. So after a very qu
FX Trading – Hodgepodge Friday
If you were worried about the euro, you can stop now. We saw a story on Bloomberg that quoted Paris-based money manager Emeric Challier as saying, “The crisis is over.” Now that the euro has plunged against the dollar, it will be a big boost to exports for Europe and allow them to turn this aili
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