Geopolitics

Germany’s Choice

By Marko Papic and Peter Zeihan The situation in Europe is dire. After years of profligate spending, Greece is becoming overwhelmed. Barring some sort of large-scale bailout program, a Greek debt default at this point is highly likely. At this moment, European Central Bank liquidity efforts are prob

2009 in Review: The Year of Obama

By George Friedman President Barack Obama’s speech in Oslo marking his receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize was eloquent, as most of his speeches are. It was also enigmatic — both for its justification of war and for his speaking on behalf of the international community while making clear that as co

Mexico: The War with the Cartels in 2009

By Scott Stewart and Alex Posey There are two cartel wars currently raging in Mexico that have combined to produce record levels of violence in 2009. The first war is the struggle between the government of Mexico and the drug cartels. The second, a parallel war, is the fight among the various cartel

The Jihadist Strategic Dilemma

By George Friedman With U.S. President Barack Obama’s announcement of his strategy in Afghanistan, the U.S.-jihadist war has entered a new phase. With its allies, the United States has decided to increase its focus on the Afghan war while continuing to withdraw from Iraq. Along with focusing on Af

Obama’s Plan and the Key Battleground

By George Friedman U.S. President Barack Obama announced the broad structure of his Afghanistan strategy in a speech at West Point on Tuesday evening. The strategy had three core elements. First, he intends to maintain pressure on al Qaeda on the Afghan-Pakistani border and in other regions of the w

Geopolitical Weekly: The BMD Decision and the Global System

The United States announced late Sept. 17 that it would abandon a plan for placing ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead of the planned system, which was intended to defend primarily against a potential crude intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)

Geopolitical Weekly: Obama’s Move: Iran and Afghanistan

By George Friedman | September 28, 2009 During the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, now-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said that like all U.S. presidents, Barack Obama would face a foreign policy test early in his presidency if elected. That test is now here. His test comprises two apparently distin

Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis

By George Friedman | October 5, 2009 Two major leaks occurred this weekend over the Iran matter. In the first, The New York Times published an article reporting that staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear oversight group, had published an unreleased report saying th

Geopolitical Weekly: The U.S. Challenge in Afghanistan

By George Friedman and Reva Bhalla The decision over whether to send more U.S. troops into Afghanistan may wait until the contested Afghan election is resolved, U.S. officials said Oct. 18. The announcement comes as U.S. President Barack Obama is approaching a decision on the war in Afghanistan. Dur

Obama and the U.S. Strategy of Buying Time

By George Friedman Making sense of U.S. President Barack Obama’s strategy at this moment is difficult. Not only is it a work in progress, but the pending decisions he has to make — on Iran, Afghanistan and Russia — tend to obscure underlying strategy. It is easy to confuse inaction