Fundamental Analysis

Why I am an Optimist

I admit that of late my writings have had a rather dark tone. There are certainly a number of severe long-term problems that we must deal with, and they’re going to serve up a lot of economic pain. But the Thanksgiving weekend with the kids has me in a reflective mood, and one that has only se

Twenty Years After the Fall

By George Friedman We are now at the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe. We are also nearing the 18th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union itself. This is more than simply a moment for reflection — it

The Employment Report

Importance: Highest. Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Frequency: Monthly. Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET Coverage: Prior Month. Web: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm Prior to the Employment Report we have

Gross Domestic Product – GDP

Release Date: Last Day of the Quarter Release Time: 8:30AM EST Coverage: Previous Quarter Released By: Commerce Department GDP represents the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. It includes consumption, government purch

US Economic Indicators & Statistics

Gross Domestic Product The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Producer Price Index (PPI) Personal Income and Consumption Wholesale Inventories Trade Balance Treasury Budget Export Prices Import Prices Initial Claims Business

Yield Curve

The Yield Curve refers to yields on treasury securities from short to long term maturities. The Yield Curve has historically proved to be an excellent economic indicator. The curve is a series of yields plotted on a graph covering the range of maturities of treasu

Retail Sales

Importance: High. Volatility: High. Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 13th of the month. Coverage: Prior Month. Web: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html Retail Sales can be a major market mover, and can be subject

Productivity and Costs

Importance: Low. Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor Release: 8:30 ET around the 7th of the second month of the quarter. Data is for prior quarter. Web: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm This release seldom has a dramatic impa

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Importance: Moderate Volatility: Moderate Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 11th of each month Coverage: Prior Month. Web: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html The Producer Price Index is the first inflation

Personal Income and Consumption

Importance: High. Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce. Release Time: 8:30 ET the fourth week of each month (data for the month prior). Volatility: Medium. Web: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm The Commerce Department releases the Personal In